Paper tiger has become a wet paper tiger…dude is just trying to hold on as long as possible. When he dies the power vacuum is going to be insane, unlike NK who has basically a king… I don’t think anyone is in line for when putin bites it.

i think this part already looked like this

in his country? no one. in general? that one nuclear bunker buster in Wyoming with his name written on it

Posturing. Nothing more. He’s trowing the weekly Trumpian hissy fit.

“We destroy your cities, but how dare you defend yourself? Escalation!”

I don’t read it that way. I think the previous “doctrine” stated that all nuclear weapons (including tactical) would only be used defensively against a nuclear attack, or if the country were in an imminent threat to existence.

This change means that if and when Ukraine step up their attacks inside Russian territory with conventional weapons made by western nuclear able nations, they are going to consider that attack to be made by a nuclear able nation.

I don’t think that means they plan to start firing off strategic nukes against the west triggering a MAD scenario. That’s not how I read it at all.

What he wants us to believe is that he’s dusting off the tactical nuclear stockpile he has at his disposal, to be used against Ukraine with the justification that the attack counts as a strike from a nuclear able nation and as such their existence is threatened.

Now, here’s the problem with this gambit. If Ukraine do step up their attacks and he doesn’t do anything or worse they don’t actually work, it’s actually worse for him that he rattled this sabre and then didn’t follow-up on the promise.

Anyway, that’s how I’m reading it at any rate.

Nah, this is Russia, they don’t have vaults. They have metro stations and lines. It’s different.

In that scenario I’m not sure if Ukraine allies are as significant as Russians allies. I very much doubt China has any tolerance for nuclear eacalation, that sets a precedent that will change how the West behaves in Taiwan. I imagine Xi’s fury at being undermined this way would manifest in ways that meaningfully hurt Russia without any actual violence.

It’s hard to say what’s appropriate. A lot of people feel like that’s already the appropriate move, given their hugely successful election interference, assassinations abroad, continual war crimes, nuclear sabre rattling, allying with rogue nations, and the resulting destabilization of the global power dynamic. How do you deal with that if not regime change? Putin was so sure that regime change was an American aim that he made it a necessity. Paranoid Russian dictators and self-fulfilling prophecies, name a more iconic duo.

I think the world will still hold back from full war. I expect a significant increase in weapons support for Ukraine, but nobody wants to get their country nuked so they won’t put boots on the ground, or attack Russia directly.

That is and was the entire point of the nuclear armsrace back then, sometimes called the MAD (mutually assured destruction) doctrine.

Basically, you stock up enough to guarantee you can destroy the world and now no one can use it, without being, well, MAD.

But Putin might be mad enough to ignore that

Probably a large scale conventional missile strike on Russian military targets Putin himself being the number one priority. He knows that the western intelligence agencies know his whereabouts at all times so unless he’s going to live in a bunker for the rest of his life he knows that nuclear strike will literally be a suicide.

Kinda doubt it would take a full day.

If the Russians launch a nuke, every nuclear state is going to get automatic warnings that either an ICBM has launched, or a nuclear flash was detected. A few minutes after that, the US president gets forcibly dragged to a bunker under the White House and told to pick a nuclear response and give the launch codes to Strategic Command.

If the president elects for ICBMs in his response, then those launch within a minute or 2 of the order going out. Russia will see this via satellite and will probably also launch in retaliation. In about 30 minutes, hundreds of nukes are in the air or detonating, and probably dozens of sub launched nukes have already gone off. A few hours after all that, the nuclear bombers arrive and drop their payloads. Nuclear war, the whole thing from start to finish, takes less than a business day. Nukes destroy cities and decapitate governments in one strike, so the proportional response is extreme violence until the other party stops launching or everyone is dead.

And that’s really just the US and Russia, there’s like 10 other nuclear nations that will also pick a side. If Russia fires off a nuke, someone will respond in kind, and that just leads to the rest of the dominos falling.

My point is, nuclear war happens so fast that there’s not really time for china to say anything. Once you light the fuse, it doesn’t stop. No one has ever tried to restore deterrence, because no one was supposed to be stupid enough to test deterrence. The plan for restoring deterrence is therefore equally stupid: keep launching like we planned to anyway.