Who’s winning POTUS? Will it be called on election night or drawn out? Congress? Etc
Trump seems to always exceed expectations, so I fear he will almost certainly win unless a health condition forces him out of the race.
However, I have consistently under estimated Harris, so maybe I’ll be wrong yet again and she will be the one to overperform…
It’s gonna be a shitshow.
Without question Trump is winning. It feels like it should defy logic, but it actually matches with the current mood in the nation, and the state of the ‘culture war’.
The current betting odds aggregations have trump at 58%, harris at 41%
https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
Well that’s disheartening. Can’t believe that many people prefer a racist con man to a competent woman.
Betting markets don’t really have any predictive value. It’s all vibes.
Wikipedia lists Real Clear Politics as having become more conservative and right leaning in recent years. Their polls may not be as accurate.
That’s not a poll. It’s an aggregate / average of betting markets.
The 1% will benefit.
Before all ballots are counted, Trump declares himself a winner and starts sounding the alarm about illegitimate counts. Trump then contests battleground states and has enough alternate electors that the final score gets escalated to the Supreme Court, who grants Trump the win while they “figure it all out”. They declare widespread “issues” with the election and localized protests ensue. Trump declares martial law and tells the police to “be tough”. Several injuries and deaths set more riots and protests. Trump orders the national guard to help with crowd control. An overzealous soldier opens with live fire on the crowd, killing several due to stampedes and general chaos.
Trump blames chaos on Democrats and claims illegal immigrants were behind the violence, begins his mass deportation exercise. Numerous non immigrants are rounded up “as sympathizers” and taken to holding facilities in Texas and several other border states where they are held indefinitely without trial.
Trump creates a tip line to report “illegal aliens” and people start reporting their neighbours and anyone else they find “suspicious”. People are always keeping their eyes out and keeping their lives to themselves out of fear they may be reported.
Trump and his regime create a committee to oversee and overhaul elections “due to all that bad corruption” and suggests a moratorium on elections until “they figure it out”.
They don’t ever figure it out.
So basically “how to speedrun dictatorship”
My rational side wants to see Harris win, but the anarchist in me wants to see Trump win, just to see what would happen. Not living in the US, obviously.
Trump winning could be a disaster for the whole world since US is such a major player in basically everything, but my anarchist side does not listen.
They’ll both be disasters for the USA.
Trump will be a disaster because millions of Americans who are currently on the brink of poverty will sink into poverty under his policies, amplifying all kinds of social problems and civil unrest.
Harris will be a disaster because she will escalate unpopular military conflicts, overextending the military, further lessening the prestige of the US, and encouraging countries to de-dollarize.
The next four years are going to be rough. There’s no avoiding it.
What does Trump winning have to do with Anarchy?
Would U.S.A. foreign policy be drastically affected by who becomes the president?
As a non-American, I think it’d have more impact on the people of the U.S.A and maybe immediate neighbours like Mexico.I don’t know, to quote someone I read here: “The world shits when the US farts”
US electing an authoritarian might encourage authoritarians all around the world (even more)
US electing an authoritarian might encourage authoritarians all around the world (even more)
That maybe a consequence but US foreign policy might improve or remain unchanged under Trump.
Haha, u kidding?
They will improve with authoritarians, where Trump can personally benefit from.
For everyone else it will worsen and set global policies back by at least one decade.
2016 2: electric boogaloo. Harris loses PA and MI due to campaigning on continued genocide, leaving her with a popular vote victory but electoral college loss.
That’s what I’d bet on if I were a betting man.
My prediction is that every other country will watch with a mix of concern and popcorn
As a Brazilian, this too. Also, some PTSD from remembering recent Brazilian elections (sometimes USA and Brazil are so similar that they seem like brothers separated at birth, your Trump was our Bolsonaro, your Biden is our Lula, I wouldn’t be surprised if your Harris is our Dilma without the “stockpiling of wind” thing).
As a non-American, this. And I honestly don’t understand why so many people in our neck of the woods aren’t more concerned about this. You guys are such a heavy hitter from a socio-economical standpoint, that anything which goes down in your country will inevitably affect everyone else.
Civil war, because Trump won’t accept the result and Musk will be fueling the hate.
The material conditions aren’t ripe for a civil war just yet, nor for a revolution. Things have not gotten dire for the US Empire abroad just yet.
Right now I think Harris is more likely to win than Trump, but it would also not be an enormous surprise if Trump wins.
Jill Stein comes from behind to take the surprise win. Dems and Republicans both claim it’s stolen.
It’s going to be a shit show.
We won’t have a clear winner. No matter which candidate “wins”, there will be widespread allegations of voter fraud. There will be protests. Biden will declare a national emergency. What happens after that? I don’t know. But I am prepared for major social unrest.
A large number of people from both major parties are absolutely unwilling to accept a win by the opposing candidate. I’ve never seen the country so divided.
I hope you are right about the left not accepting a Trump win. I don’t even know why he’s a legitimate candidate with the whole insurrection thing. Openly gaming the election? Felonies? I don’t think the US can survive four more years of this guy, so I think the time for passively accepting his shenanigans is over.
2016 election night again. Kamala has more votes, loses electoral college
