Ukraine says Russia has launched an intercontinental ballistic missile overnight targeting Dnipro city in the central-east of the country, which, if confirmed, would be the first time Moscow has used such a missile in the war.
that still doesn’t explain using an icbm against a nation you share a border with. there’s some message russia is sending. it’s either “don’t forget, we have icbms and they’re operational” or it’s “we are running low on standard missiles and have to fight weird”
It makes sense from Purim’s perspective because he gets to perform a test of his pilfered military and the results are validated by an independent third party for free.
Don’t let the name fool you, ICBMs not only have a much larger range but they also (generally) have higher payloads and they’re designed around ‘user servicable’ and swappable warheads.
They’re sending a message and it isn’t “we could hit you even if you were thousands of kilometers away”, it’s “we could bolt a nuke to this bad boy”
I mean… The general point still stands. It’s not that western nations seriously doubt that Russia has these weapons. We know Russia has ICBMs, we know they have nukes, we know they’re willing to attack Ukraine with conventional weapons.
What Western nations doubt is that Russia would actually attack them or use nukes, because it’d trigger a united response they’d lose against, and they know that and want to avoid it.
What Western nations doubt is that Russia would actually attack them or use nukes
Russia launched everything but the nuke. That should be the takeaway.
Yes, everyone knows they have nuclear weapons, chemical weapons, all that fun shit, everyone knows they have ICBMs.
They’ve implied verbally that there could be scenarios in which they’d feel justified with using a nuclear weapon, but they literally just launched everything but the nuke. It’s a pretty major escalation.
I’m also not here to speculate as to whether it’s a hollow threat, I’m just pointing out that launching an ICBM is a really big deal
Yeah, but a central tenet of nuclear deterrence is that you don’t constantly posture your own position with nuclear armaments. If you keep saying if you cross this red line we’ll go nuclear, and then don’t … It makes future threats pretty laughable.
International nuclear relations have already been gamed out. It’s always a last case scenario, because everyone has a sense of self preservation, especially the narcissistic types that like to be in charge of countries.
No one wants to live in a nuclear wasteland, so no one is going to create a nuclear wasteland unless they feel that they themselves are in immediate existential danger, and even then it would be an action made in spite.
FWIW, the US currently thinks it’s an IRBM, not an ICBM, basically for that reason. Why use an ICBM here? But Russia might have done it just because they can.
that still doesn’t explain using an icbm against a nation you share a border with. there’s some message russia is sending. it’s either “don’t forget, we have icbms and they’re operational” or it’s “we are running low on standard missiles and have to fight weird”
It makes sense from Purim’s perspective because he gets to perform a test of his pilfered military and the results are validated by an independent third party for free.
Don’t let the name fool you, ICBMs not only have a much larger range but they also (generally) have higher payloads and they’re designed around ‘user servicable’ and swappable warheads.
They’re sending a message and it isn’t “we could hit you even if you were thousands of kilometers away”, it’s “we could bolt a nuke to this bad boy”
I mean… The general point still stands. It’s not that western nations seriously doubt that Russia has these weapons. We know Russia has ICBMs, we know they have nukes, we know they’re willing to attack Ukraine with conventional weapons.
What Western nations doubt is that Russia would actually attack them or use nukes, because it’d trigger a united response they’d lose against, and they know that and want to avoid it.
It’s not about capabilities, but willingness.
Russia launched everything but the nuke. That should be the takeaway.
Yes, everyone knows they have nuclear weapons, chemical weapons, all that fun shit, everyone knows they have ICBMs.
They’ve implied verbally that there could be scenarios in which they’d feel justified with using a nuclear weapon, but they literally just launched everything but the nuke. It’s a pretty major escalation.
I’m also not here to speculate as to whether it’s a hollow threat, I’m just pointing out that launching an ICBM is a really big deal
Yeah, but a central tenet of nuclear deterrence is that you don’t constantly posture your own position with nuclear armaments. If you keep saying if you cross this red line we’ll go nuclear, and then don’t … It makes future threats pretty laughable.
International nuclear relations have already been gamed out. It’s always a last case scenario, because everyone has a sense of self preservation, especially the narcissistic types that like to be in charge of countries.
No one wants to live in a nuclear wasteland, so no one is going to create a nuclear wasteland unless they feel that they themselves are in immediate existential danger, and even then it would be an action made in spite.
This is part of the point I was trying to make
FWIW, the US currently thinks it’s an IRBM, not an ICBM, basically for that reason. Why use an ICBM here? But Russia might have done it just because they can.