In some studies, at the end of them, I see:

“quitting smoking reduces your chance of dying from all causes.”

So if I quit smoking I’m less likely to get hit by a bus?

  • philpo
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    17 days ago

    Yeah. Came here to write exactly this.

    What OP misunderstood is the old tale of mortality vs. lethality.

    In a simplified explanation: Mortality defines the percentage of deaths in a population by a cause.

    Lethality is the percentage of deaths of people suffering from a cause.

    In our case:

    • Smokers might only get hit by a bus slightly less often or slightly more often(1) (Mortality)

    • But they have a far greater chance of dying from it when they get hit. The same can be said for being shot,etc. Being a smoker always reduces your statistical chances.

    (1:Actually quite fascinating - there is conflicting evidence on that one, as smoking is often statistically associated with substance abuse and bad health - which increases the likelihood of major trauma events, but on the other hand smokers die earlier,leaving more old people to walk in front of vehicles due to reduced cognitive abilities)

    • smoking is often statistically associated with substance abuse and bad health - which increases the likelihood of major trauma events, but on the other hand smokers die earlier,leaving more old people to walk in front of vehicles due to reduced cognitive abilities)

      So what about if we control for age? Are old smokers more or less likely to get hit by a bus than old non-smokers?

      Quick, someone do an RCT.