jeffw@lemmy.worldcake to politics @lemmy.world · 24 days agoBiden is on track to beat inflation and lose the presidencywww.vox.comexternal-linkmessage-square5fedilinkarrow-up10arrow-down10
arrow-up10arrow-down1external-linkBiden is on track to beat inflation and lose the presidencywww.vox.comjeffw@lemmy.worldcake to politics @lemmy.world · 24 days agomessage-square5fedilink
minus-squareShunkW@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkarrow-up0·23 days agoWasn’t 538 wrong about Trump winning in 2016 though?
minus-squarecbarrick@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up1·23 days agoEveryone was wrong in 2016. 538 was the least wrong of any model anywhere. And Nate Silver was ridiculed at the time for giving Trump such a high chance of winning, before the election.
minus-squareSkepticpunk@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up1·edit-223 days agoNo. 538 gave Trump the best chances out of any model, which Nate was criticized heavily for. 1-in-3 chances, which is what Trump had in 2016, are still pretty likely.
Wasn’t 538 wrong about Trump winning in 2016 though?
Everyone was wrong in 2016.
538 was the least wrong of any model anywhere.
And Nate Silver was ridiculed at the time for giving Trump such a high chance of winning, before the election.
No. 538 gave Trump the best chances out of any model, which Nate was criticized heavily for. 1-in-3 chances, which is what Trump had in 2016, are still pretty likely.