• Sanctus@lemmy.world
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      6 months ago

      Its possible the keg is done being packed and we’re watching the fuse dwindle

    • foggy@lemmy.world
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      6 months ago

      My bets have been on Taiwan being the flashpoint for well over a year now. Standing firm.

      And my bet is and has been “before Christmas of 2024.”

      • Semi-Hemi-Lemmygod@lemmy.world
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        6 months ago

        Especially if there’s “voting irregularities” or Trump wins outright. The Chinese would definitely take advantage of the confusion.

        • foggy@lemmy.world
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          6 months ago

          Idk. We’ve choked China out of AI supremacy. All of our mega GDP makers rely heavily on TSMC. Heavily.

          I mean, entirely.

          Like Biden throwing billions at chip manufacturers. Tensions in the South China Sea are ridiculous. The stakes have never been higher, and it’s right in what they see as their back yard. Taking down TSMC cripples the US economy, causes a worldwide kerfuffle (especially with tensions from Russia/Ukraine, Israel/Palestine, Israel/Iran, US/Israel, US/Ukraine, US/Iran relationships.

          I get what you mean that you’ve been thinking that for a decade. Ive been seeing it for as long. But it’s gotten real with the AI bubble and tech sanctions. If it doesn’t burst before 2030, there’s no way China doesn’t act. Frankly, I’m betting on less than 6 months.

            • foggy@lemmy.world
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              6 months ago

              Id put money on it happening before 2031. Like lots of money.

              But Xi outright told Biden he and to invade Taiwan. This year. Verbatim. I guess I’m saying he’ll lose a lot of public respect. Not that that’s as valued there as it is in the US, but it’s still reflect globally very weak and that’s just not what global superpowers do. They don’t make clear threats empty.

                • foggy@lemmy.world
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                  6 months ago

                  I put a hard barrier past 2030 because of the China Reunification thing. It’s a big thing for Xi. If he doesn’t attempt he’ll look like a no-balls fearful leader, or something. Idk.

                  And I say 2024 because he balls’d up around Xmas 2023 and said, as I mentioned, verbatim, “We will invade Taiwan this (next) year”

                  • Triasha@lemmy.world
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                    6 months ago

                    Then we got the leaks saying the Chinese Military is Fubared by corruption down to the warehouse workers.

                    Russia could at least limp into Donbas when their Kiev assault disintegrated. If China tries to invade Taiwan and their missiles don’t launch, it will be a stupidly expensive, deadly, embarrassment. Just ships and planes littering the ocean floor.

                    Xhi needs to be confident that his navy won’t get pulled into Taipei ports by tugboat like Russian Tanks in the cornfields.

      • Drusas@kbin.run
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        6 months ago

        China starting it like that had been my firm suspicion for years, but after the past year or so, I’ve changed my mind. They still could be the ones to trigger it, but there are so many more players now. Russia could start it (or have already done so without us realizing it yet). Israel could start it. China could start it over island territories that they have no legitimate claim over–oh wait, that includes Taiwan.

        • foggy@lemmy.world
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          6 months ago

          Strange time to change your mind about it…?

          South China Seas have never been more piratey. It’s basically a warzone already, inching closer to Taiwan every day.

          By this I mean like… What’re your regularish news sources? Because my radar flipped the other way.