Honestly it’ll probably be closer to 99.999% of users will stick around Reddit. The largest Lemmy instance is smaller than the smallest subreddit I follow and I suspect that’s probably the case for most people.
Here’s what will happen… Reddit blackout starts, people come to Lemmy, 8 out of 10 are confused by the way things work and bail instantly. 2 out of 10 might stick around, try to sign up, but everyone hammers the top 3-4 instances and they have a bad first impression. A few days later everyone is back at Reddit and Lemmy is right back where it was a month ago.
You’re exaggerating, I can definitely see how Twitter users changed the general atmosphere of the Fediverse, at least on the instances that I have used in the past. As for Reddit, I think it will be something similar to that, not everyone is going to migrate but Lemmy is going to be significantly bigger, better and THE place to go if you want to ditch Reddit. Also, it’s not like having a big portion here of social media audience is going to do a lot of good. I have serious doubts about people being able to give value to the community if they can’t even figure out how to register on an instance other than the main one
Yeah Reddit’s core users are pretty technical. At least the ones who joined before the big popularity boom in the last 5 years. The old school redditors will probably end up on lemmy.
You’re talking about ~70% of reddit and you’re probably right.
Let’s see. If lemmy gets an app with a better UI, it’s going to be that way for sure.
An embeddes image and video viewer is missing, for example
The impression lemmy makes right now is what counts. If things change in years and people are back to reddit the chance to grow meaningfully has passed.
Honestly it’ll probably be closer to 99.999% of users will stick around Reddit. The largest Lemmy instance is smaller than the smallest subreddit I follow and I suspect that’s probably the case for most people.
Here’s what will happen… Reddit blackout starts, people come to Lemmy, 8 out of 10 are confused by the way things work and bail instantly. 2 out of 10 might stick around, try to sign up, but everyone hammers the top 3-4 instances and they have a bad first impression. A few days later everyone is back at Reddit and Lemmy is right back where it was a month ago.
I hope I’m wrong, but I doubt I will be.
You’re exaggerating, I can definitely see how Twitter users changed the general atmosphere of the Fediverse, at least on the instances that I have used in the past. As for Reddit, I think it will be something similar to that, not everyone is going to migrate but Lemmy is going to be significantly bigger, better and THE place to go if you want to ditch Reddit. Also, it’s not like having a big portion here of social media audience is going to do a lot of good. I have serious doubts about people being able to give value to the community if they can’t even figure out how to register on an instance other than the main one
Yeah Reddit’s core users are pretty technical. At least the ones who joined before the big popularity boom in the last 5 years. The old school redditors will probably end up on lemmy.
You’re talking about ~70% of reddit and you’re probably right. Let’s see. If lemmy gets an app with a better UI, it’s going to be that way for sure. An embeddes image and video viewer is missing, for example
The impression lemmy makes right now is what counts. If things change in years and people are back to reddit the chance to grow meaningfully has passed.