Cross-posted from: https://feddit.de/post/10013170
The war in Ukraine is “existential for our Europe and for France”, Mr Macron said in the interview on France 2 and TF1.
“Do you think that the Poles, the Lithuanians, the Estonians, the Romanians and the Bulgarians could remain at peace for a second [in the event of a Russian victory in Ukraine]?” he asked. “If Russia wins this war, Europe’s credibility would be reduced to zero.”
We need to start defining what a win and what a loss is. I feel that this could vary on some parts
Honestly it feels like the only reasonable outcome is a division like Korea, and focus on modernising and liberalising West Ukraine.
So… west Ukraine up til Moscow and east Ukraine for the rest?
Edit: apparently we need an /s
That isn’t realistic, and Russia has nuclear weapons too.
The best bet is that the regime will be toppled in Russia with time, just like the USSR was.
It’s better to lead by example with free institutions and free markets - the people of Russia will want freedom too.
The US has nuclear weapons. Europe has nuclear weapons.
Bullshit about “free institutions and free market”. That was the thought after the Soviet Union collapsed. And what do we have now? The exact opposite of what Russia “was supposed to be through open markets”.
Yeah, and they would use them if they had foreign armies pushing into their territory.
But no efforts were made to really democratise and modernise Russia - they let oligarchs rise up from criminal gangs, etc., it’d have been better to have a more controlled process like Glasnost.
Yeah because Russia was not capitulated. They were a disfunctional, but sovereign country. You cannot dictate anything on them. You can lead by example or make suggestions, but ultimately it’s the will of the people that matters. In that regard the situation is rather similar to Germany post WW1. A people not yet ready for democracy and no one there to force them to. In Germany’s case it took the entire to be bombed to the ground, millions dead and being occupied by 4 not so emphatic countries.
It’s very simple. Make the occupiers fuck off behind Ukraine’s internationally recognised borders.
Are there elections coming in France?
We are hearing big words from Macron over and over in the last few weeks to support Ukraine - yet France is far behind when in comes to supporting Ukraine financially or with military equipment. And please don’t bring that Reddit meme ‘France is doing everything secretly and nobody knows about it’. Democratic financing in billions of Euros is public and not a high toilet paper bill like in Hollywood movies from the 80s. There is of course a lot of proportionate support by France within the EU-assistance, as France is a big economy and paying into the EU budget. It’s a similar situation with Italy, as they are another big economy within the EU. Both EU ‘power houses’ are far behind when it comes to direct support for Ukraine.
Macron has been telling us just last week, that the local EU arms industry needs more orders to enable low and competitive prices. He also told us support for Ukraine should only receive subsidies for EU-made products. And last week we saw statistics that the arm industry/exports from the USA and France profited the most from the Russian invasion in Ukraine, as everyone is getting their military up to date and ordering a lot. So everything plays in his hands and France is reaping in big profits and getting support for its huge arms industry. Yet, the country is far behind in supporting Ukraine and Macron keeps calling other countries to support Ukraine more - or here that ‘Europe will lose all credibility’.
What is going on here? Elections?
European elections are ongoing, and that’s definitely a move to tell to pro-European to not vote for “certain parties”.
You’re absolutely right that if we look at the material given, for once Germany is leading the “European defence”. And that realistically, moving “troops” to Ukraine will impact other front where french troops are fighting. So I am not sure which part of it is just word and whether it’ll change much the big picture. That said, I can see how even non combat soldier could be a drastic change. If you send military mechanics with the tanks you let Ukraine having more combat troops and avoid long retraining of support staff.
No-one cares about the European elections, the Parliament doesn’t even have the power to propose new laws.
Unfortunately you’re not wrong that many people don’t care 'bout the European election, on the other hand it means that there is a big intersection between the people who care about the European election and the ones who want to see more support for Urkaine, and for a political party it’s still an election with MEP and assistant positions to get, this is crucial to keep the party alive and prepare the post-Macron era.
However, even though the power balance in the EU is too much in favour of the council rather the parliament, there is tons of laws coming from the European level (GDPR is a big one, but recently the EP voted against a medical visit for the driver licence) so this election has a big weight
I can’t vote anyway, because I never voted back in my passport home country. Despite holding EU citizenship and living in the EU.
It sucks that voting rights aren’t just tied to paying taxes - the EU should really sort that out, so it functions more like a whole citizenship wherever you live, like the USA is.
You still should be able to vote in your new EU home country, if you register early enough.
Credibility is not the only thing Europe is bound to lose if Russia is victorious.
As if Europe or the „Western“ world in general would still have any credibility with the Gaza genocide.
I truly feel sorry for Ukrainians as the support for the resistance was never about actual solidarity or values.
@bolzolol
As if Europe or the „Western“ world in general would still have any credibility with the Gaza genocide.
I truly feel sorry for Ukrainians as the support for the resistance was never about actual solidarity or values.
Aren’t you getting tired of this?
Ah yeah the typical whataboutism accusation. Whataboutism is certainly a problem when trolls try to derail debates.
In this case though the statement that Europe would lose all credibility if Ukraine loses relies on the premise that there’s any credibility left to begin with. I’m challenging that premise.
It’s blatantly obvious that the support for Ukraine was always just about geopolitics, and never about moral or values. Now, the geopolitical interest seems to have shifted, hence no more support for Ukraine. See e.g. Scholz not even giving any reasons for denying support, except that he says so.
I think all of this is terrible and I want Ukraine to be supported, but our dear Western leaders are morally bankrupt so I’m afraid it may not happen.
They’re arabs! Who cares
We are talking about white people here.
Sorry, I got carried away for a second. I think there were some white doctors there or something at some point so that confused me
I have a feeling that it’s mainly about power. Russia having more power will be catastrophic to the world
It’s not like the West is any more humane, we’re just committing all the atrocities far away from ourselves. It’s objectively better for almost anyone to live in a Western country than in the places we oppress. And I wouldn’t want to live in Russia or China either.
I totally agree that Russia shouldn’t have power. But how much does the Western power help middle easterners? Or how much did it help in Korea, Vietnam, …
So it’s fighting Russia’s power isn’t based on a consistent moral framework. It’s just done because our own quality of life is better if Russia has less power.
You realize that there’s a genocide happening in Ukraine too that is much more intentional than Gaza right? I’ve read Putin’s papers on Ukrainian identity, or rather lack thereof. The Russians are abducting all of the Ukrainian children and turning them into Russians by forcing them to speak Russian and indoctrinating them. They have stripped the occupied territory of young Ukrainian men to kill off families there.
I guess that because we’re slow to provide aid to Gaza, we’re supposed to ignore the Ukrainian genocide and European security threat that is Russia.
Good news is that we’re now dropping food aid and the Americans are putting floating docks there to deliver aid. Maybe next time the Gazan militias will distribute the food aid for free instead of selling it to the people.
I’m not sure if you understand the politics of Gaza, Israel, Hamas, the PNA, Egypt or Iran. You have to understand all of the players before you can make a good opinion. You also have to understand what is and isn’t a war crime. And what exactly Genocide is.
Go read UN reports and their definitions of war crimes. Learn to recognize deception in war footage. Read about the politics of each faction. And maybe then, you can have a decent opinion
I find it very strange to tell someone you know nothing about that they have no clue what they’re talking about simply because they disagree with you.
The mental gymnastics you’re doing to assert that the situation in Ukraine and Gaza would be different is either driven by racism (which I don’t want to accuse you of) or ignorance out of a geopolitical interest.
First of all, intention is central to the legal definition of genocide. You cannot accidentally commit genocide. Both Russia and Israel are very open about their intentions and it’s clear that they want to eradicate the Ukrainians/Palestinians as a people and claim the land for themselves.
The only difference is that we’re arming the victim in the case of Ukraine and the perpetrators in the case of Israel. If you’re interested in UN reports then feel free to read their assessments on the war crimes, ethnic cleansings, Apartheid, illegal occupation, indefinite mass imprisonments without charge, torture, sexual abuse during said imprisonment, and most recently on the genocide. Feel free to also read the ICJ case by South Africa.
If your empathy extends only to some people it’s up to you to figure out why. It only proves my point that Europe has no credibility to begin with. Our support for Ukraine is purely driven by our own interest to fight back against Russia. Ukrainians are nothing but a pawn for us, although it’s a convenient narrative that they’re the victims and we’re doing it for a greater cause.
Maybe I’m just salty that this war is going so well for Hamas and Netenyahou both. Nenenyahou gets to satisfy his conservative base by way of ethnic cleansing and Hamas has gathered so much international sympathy that it makes ISIS look like a school fundraiser. Terrorism works, and that was Hamas’ goal at the start.
I know that under the UN statute, many Israeli officials are likely guilty of genocide. The ICC is going to have to decide that like they have for Russia. Netenyahou is chief among them. To excuse Ukranian Genocide by saying that we aren’t doing enough about Gaza is the main thing that I’m angry about.
As a side note, I see the echoes of the Battle of Mosul where ISIS used many of the same tactics to cause as much suffering as possible to the civilian population. Maybe that’s what put me off from Hamas
Unfortunately, we can’t afford to intervene in every genocide that’s happening, whether in Armenia, Myanmar, Xinjiang or Sudan. We are complicit in the genocide of Uighurs for cheap goods. I’m so tired
I totally get your stance on Hamas and I think most of us feel this way. Hamas are not the good guys. I don’t think Hamas has gathered a lot of sympathy at least in the Western world, e.g. in German media they’re still always called either terrorists or radical islamists/jihadists. But it’s also mind-boggling to me how much legitimacy they have gained through October 7. The world shouldn’t work like this but it keeps rewarding ruthless violence.
And I think another part of the problem is seeing global conflicts like football matches. Like in this conflict someone is team Ukraine and in this other conflict they‘re actually team Russia/Iran/China/… because ABC. But how can people think like that? We should always be on the side of humanity & the principle that every person on this planet has a right to live in safety, freedom & dignity.
I’m just really really dreading the double standards applied to people based on whether or not they’re useful to us. Of course we can’t intervene everywhere, it would already be big if we would stop sending weapons and ammo, and if we would stop providing rhetoric cover for this genocide. Or if we would stop being partners with the genocidal Azerbaijani government. Like we could just stop supporting genocidal regimes but because of money and power we ignore or even excuse what they do.
Another thing I saw is Russian trolls are hijacking the Gaza war to destabilize Western countries. I think this contributes to the distrust in someone calling out the West‘s hypocrisy. It became so Russian propaganda tool to do so, and naturally those propagandists will also be extremely pro-Russian. Like wtf.
Anyway, thanks for exchange, I totally feel and share your frustration. I would like to end this with some positive or encouraging note but honestly wouldn’t know what that would be, politics is so fucked.
Citing the same interview, the U.S. magazine Newsweek published an article with Macron saying that Ukraine must reclaim Crimea to achieve real peace
U.S. conservatives are champing at the bit to see Europe fall to Russia. Action needs to happen now, or the U.S. could have a conservative government that backs Putin. That would be the end of Europe.
We need to join Europe right now in a full-scale defense of Ukraine. Otherwise we are allowing Putin to take Europe simply by threat of nuclear action. We need to strike first, disarm the dictator and repel the Russian invasion. And we need to do it now. The clock is ticking.
We need to destroy Russias ability to threaten the EU and remove Putin and any other similar leader from power in Russia. That should be the goal of the EU and not to go into a full scale war with Russia. Seriously Putin is not winning that war. The Russian civilian economy is shrinking fast, Russias war reserves are depleting, oil income is falling, soldiers are being lost on a massive scale with a demogrophics, which does not allow for that, and Russias weapons reserves from Soviet times are falling. Russia has two or three years of full scale war in it. The only thing we need to do is to keep Ukraine in the fight, while destroying as much of Russia as possible.
The one thing Russia has able to successfully ramp up production on is basic artillery shells. Analysts are putting their production numbers at something like 3x what Europe is putting out. It’s starting to become a problem.
And that little spineless shitfuck Johnson is doing precisely what Putin wants in this scenario. There is a direct causal relationship between Johnson + the GOP refusing to give anything to Ukraine for months and Ukraine’s recent strategic difficulties. I sincerely hope Johnson is able to experience the tender mercies of Russian captivity someday.
Nope, Russia is firing three times as many shells as Europe produces in 155mm. However that includes North Korean shells and smaller artillery calibers. The EU also produces some 152mm and 120mm. Even more importantly the shells are much more accurate.
I’m not sure you understood the gist of my comment. I know the calibers are different, and that the shells the Russians are cranking out are very basic. They’re going for the Soviet approach (just make TONS of shitty-to-mediocre weapons).
Exactly right. Quantity has a quality of its own. Russia tried a US-style rapid combined arms shock-and-awe invasion of Ukraine and fucked it up, so they’ve reverted to the old school Soviet strategy: throw huge masses of men and materiel into the fight, be relentless and willing to endure huge losses.
The interesting thing is that this is the strategy NATO expected throughout the Cold War, so we should be prepared for it. Granted, NATO was preparing for a Soviet invasion through the Fulda Gap and then across the North German plain, but still, the strategy is the same. NATO always intended to use superior technology and tactics to trade space for time while we mobilized to meet the massed Soviet forces.
The fact that we have allowed Russia to continue this all-out war for two years and STILL haven’t adequately mobilized is pretty bad. Macron is right: Europe, particularly western Europe, has lost a hell of a lot of credibility.
France and the UK have lost the most credibility, I think. They were the two main victorious European powers after WW2, as well as being large, rich countries, permanent Security Council members, and nuclear powers in their own right. Germany gets a pass because they are not supposed to have a large military, for obvious historical reasons.
Europe has been too heavily relying on the US to save the day, despite obvious signs that the US is suffering from war weariness, corruption, and very serious internal social divisions.
The German Bundeswehr has been a quite lacking army with lots of problems with non functional equipment. I wonder if the DDR and BRD had well trained and equipped armies respectively. I’m too young to know about that.
Yes both sides of the fence were armed to the teeth. TBF though the criteria of how big of an issue a piece of equipment needs to have to be considered inoperational was probably more lax back then
How can ukraine even win? Like there is no venue left other than NATO troops… oh…
